Research on China-Belarus Trade Services in the Era of New Quality Productivity

Abstract

New-type productivity, driven by technological innovation as its core engine, is reshaping global industrial chains, supply chains, and service ecosystems. Building upon the theoretical framework of new-type productivity, this study systematically examines the current status of trade service cooperation, policy coordination mechanisms, and dynamic effects between China and Belarus under this framework. By analyzing panel data on service trade, goods trade, digital economy, and policy coordination from 2010 to 2023, we construct a VAR model to analyze dynamic correlations among key variables. Case studies including China-Belarus Industrial Parks, China-Europe Railway Express, and cross-border e-commerce platforms reveal structural characteristics of service trade growth and policy-driven pathways. Findings indicate that three new-type productivity factors—digital technology, green innovation, and policy coordination—exert significant positive impacts on service trade expansion and structural upgrading. For every 1% increase in integration between digital economy and service trade, total service trade volume grows by 0.82%. Additionally, each 1-unit improvement in policy coordination reduces the volatility range of service trade growth rates by 12%. This research provides quantitative evidence and practical insights for deepening service trade cooperation between China and Belarus